PAPER TITLE :MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON COCOA YIELD IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA (1976-2009)

APPLIED TROPICAL AGRICULTURE | VOLUME 18 NUMBER 1 2013

Paper Details

  • Author(s) : S. O. Oguntunde*, I. A. Ajibefun, P. G. Oguntunde
  • Abstract:

Agricultural sector is highly sensitivity to climate variability and change with potential huge economic impact. Therefore the aim of this research was to determine the effect of variability and change in climatic variables on cocoa yield in Ondo State. Regression model was adopted to determine the influence of selected climatic variables on cocoa yield between 1976 and 2009. In addition, socio-economic data on cocoa farmers were collected using structured questionnaires and statistically analyzed. The result showed that majority of the cocoa farmers are in the economically active working age; highly experienced and are educated to at least primary school level. About 97 % of the farmers were aware of climate variability and change. About 43% have annual income over the average of N280,833, while 24% had higher income than annual average. Result of regression analysis showed that 74 percent of the variability in cocoa yield was due to variations in the maximum temperature of November, mean temperature of August, annual diurnal temperature, maximum temperature of June, and vapour pressure deficit of September. The estimated coefficients for all the independent variables, except mean temperature of August, had negative impact on cocoa yield in the study area. Thus, future increases in temperature would require that cocoa farmers adopt coping strategies for sustainable production. The fitted climate-yield regression model may be used for further studies in relation to projected climate change impact on cocoa production.