.

The study examined whether or not there is short run and long run equilibrium
relationship between cocoa output and climate change variables (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature and
Humidity). This is to ascertain the effect of climate change on cocoa output both in the short run
and long run in the study area. The short run was considered to be within the period of 1971-1990
and 1990-2010, while the long run was considered to be within the period of 1971-2010. It was
established at the long run that cocoa output and rainfall were non-stationary among the three
selected climate change determinants (i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). In the long run,
both at 1% and 5% level of significance, their absolute values were greater than the critical
values (i.e. for cocoa;-2.855384>-3.610453 & -2.938987 and for rainfall; -1.591781>-3.610453
&-2.938987). Also, the co-integration test was carried out in the long run; the trace statistic test
revealed that at both 1% and 5% level of significance 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated. The
Max-Eigen values also revealed that at both 1% and 5% levels of significance, that at most 2 and
1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute values 25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07
and 18.63. This corroborated the trace statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long
run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and rainfall. The results established the fact
that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall
distribution in the study area.

Cocoa, rainfall, humidity, temperature, co-integration